In 2021, the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan.
What changed? And how it relates to the deadly Moscow terror attack?
24 March, 2024
Just the summary:
The Taliban, an Islamic fundamentalist organisation, returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, toppling a U.S.-backed government, following the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Media coverage of the Taliban’s return strongly emphasised the failures of the U.S.’ Afghanistan policy over the last 20 years.
Taliban policy promises — to respect women's rights; boost the economy; pursue a war on drugs; and improve security from terrorist organisations in the region, such as Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) — have scarcely been delivered, except for the limiting of drug production.
The Taliban's primary goal is to be diplomatically recognised, but so far no country or international organisation has done this.
Central Asian countries have mixed relations with the Taliban with terrorism threats and water disputes the main issues affecting regional ties.
Russia and China are eager to take advantage of the power vacuum created by U.S.' withdrawal, although Afghanistan's lack of rule of law and sanctions limit economic opportunities.
What is the Taliban? How did they return to power?
In 1979 the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to support a pro-Soviet government. After 10 years of military intervention, the country slid into a civil war which was eventually won by the Taliban in 1996.
The Taliban is an Islamic fundamentalist organisation from Afghanistan that returned to power in 2021 after being overthrown by a U.S.-led invasion in 2001.
Between 2001 and 2021, the Taliban regrouped in the area bordering Pakistan. Its slow counteroffensive was boosted by the Doha Agreement in 2020 in which the U.S. agreed to withdraw all the NATO forces in Afghanistan in exchange for the Taliban’s pledge to fight international terrorist groups stationed in the country.
The Afghan government at the time was not involved in the agreement.
This plan, initially pursued by Donald Trump, was confirmed by President Joe Biden after taking office, although some reports suggested that the Taliban could quickly regain territory after the withdrawal.
President Biden justified his decision by arguing that the U.S. entered the country in 2001 with two clear goals - to kill Osama Bin Laden and to counter al-Qaida - both of which were achieved.
On August 15, 2021, the Taliban seized the capital, Kabul, announced control over the entire national territory and renamed the country the 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.'
The Taliban's return to power media coverage
"In Washington, the speed of the collapse took the Biden administration by surprise, officials said — and left it with the realisation that Mr. Biden will go down in history as the president who presided over a humiliating final act in a long and bedeviled American chapter in Afghanistan."
The New York Times, August 15, 2021
"The U.S. has spent an estimated $1tn in the country since it invaded in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks, toppling the al-Qaeda-linked Taliban regime. Yet, two decades later, the Islamists are once again in power after an offensive that, within weeks, unraveled the republic the U.S. tried to leave in its place."
Financial Times, August 19, 2021
The U.S. media of all political leanings criticised both the Biden administration's choice to withdraw and the U.S. Afghanistan policy of the last 20 years. Particular emphasis was placed on the economic costs of invading Afghanistan which are currently estimated to have exceeded $1 trillion.
"After fighting the 'longest war' in its history, the U.S. is now witnessing a complete failure in Afghanistan, [...] which analysts have said is a 'page of shame' that the U.S. has written for itself."
Global Times, August 16, 2021
"As the United States pulls out, 20 years of what Washington called 'nation building' is crumbling before the eyes of the world. And death, bloodshed and a tremendous humanitarian tragedy are what the United States has truly left behind in Afghanistan."
Xinhua, August 17, 2021
Chinese state-affiliated media harshly criticised the United States. They also published a series of articles sympathetic to the Taliban, praising their desire to form an inclusive government and launch the country along a new political trajectory.
"The Taliban seized power in Afghanistan on 15 August, causing the U.S.-backed civilian government to fall. This, in turn, prompted thousands of people to try to leave the country for fear of reprisals from the militants. Many countries have since begun evacuating their diplomatic missions and citizens from Afghanistan."
Sputnik, August 23, 2021
Russian media outlets covered the Taliban's return to power more equitably than their Chinese counterparts. The Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik did not take a definite stance against the U.S. and in some cases gave a voice to personalities advocating for maintaining a U.S. presence in Afghanistan.
Publications in the Russian media underscore that "the Taliban is a terrorist organisation banned in Russia". This view originated in the early 2000s when Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George Bush intensified security cooperation. Russia, economically and militarily weaker at the time, saw the Taliban as a significant terrorist threat. To date, Moscow still officially regards the Taliban as a terrorist organisation, despite hosting the Taliban’s diplomatic delegations for negotiations and cooperating on a range of issues.
The Taliban's four promises
After overthrowing the official Afghan government, the Taliban tried to reassure the international community by making four major promises.
Women’s rights
Despite their claims, in September 2021 the Taliban barred girls from secondary education (from 12 to 18 years) and in December 2023 they banned girls from enrolling at universities.
The Taliban ordered all beauty salons to be closed, causing the loss of 60,000 jobs, predominantly for women. Women were also prohibited from working for the United Nations and other non-governmental organisations.
Afghanistan’s female labour force participation rate was 19% in 2020, 4 times less than male participation (81%). Under the Taliban, the state of women’s participation in the workforce further deteriorated by over 25%.
War on drugs
The Taliban claims — and independent sources substantially confirm — that between August 2021 and August 2023, they completed 5,799 counter-narcotics operations, arrested 6,781 drug smugglers, seized 1,799 tons of drugs and dismantled 585 heroin production sites
Opium production in Afghanistan declined by around 95% from 6,200 tons in 2022 to 333 tons in 2023, although this contributed to the economic struggles of the country as farmers' incomes collapsed.
Security and counter-terrorism
Afghanistan still ranks bottom of the Global Peace Index. However, Afghanistan has recorded a significant drop in deaths from armed conflict - from almost 43,000 to around 4,000.
Countering terrorism, the Taliban’s key promise of the 2020 Doha Agreement, has far from been achieved, as the country still hosts around 20 terrorist organisations.
The 2023 Global Terrorism Index reported an increase in terrorist incidents (of 67), fatalities (119) and injuries (229) compared to the previous year in Afghanistan.
ISIS-K, a regional branch of the Islamic State that opposes the Taliban, has intensified its attacks in frequency and scale, and is also targeting Shia Muslim minorities. It claimed responsibility for the deadly terror attack on a concert venue in Moscow on March 22, 2024.
Economic development
Between 2021 and 2023, the Afghan economy contracted by 27%, sending millions into poverty and wiping out the middle class.
Inflation exceeded 18% in July 2022 before the country plunged into dramatic deflation that reached -10% in early 2024 as incomes and demand plummeted. Unemployment has doubled and only 40% of the population has access to electricity.
The number of people in humanitarian need increased to about 23.7 million people, while 69% of the country's population is expected to not have enough basic resources in 2024.
The Taliban's relations in Central Asia
The Taliban's major goal is to be diplomatically recognised, but so far no country or international organisation has done so.
The majority of Central Asian countries have avoided strong criticism of the Taliban and its human rights abuses, preferring cooperation on specific issues, especially regional security instead.
After August 2021, countries in the region urged the Taliban to crack down on terrorist groups on Afghan soil. However, the Taliban proved uninterested in eliminating these, especially smaller groups in the North of the country consisting of Central Asian ethnic groups, such as Uyghur, Uzbek and Tajik.
The Taliban reportedly split some jihadist militias into smaller groups of 10-15 people and geographically separated them while incorporating others into its security forces in an attempt to prevent the groups’ activity without an escalation of violence or loss of local political support.
The Taliban has also largely failed to counter the ISIS-K group and the even more dangerous Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which operates along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, known as the Durand Line.
Counter-terrorism is a crucial factor in the Taliban's relations with both regional and global powers.
The Taliban looked at infrastructure spending to boost the domestic economy, investing in the Trans-Afghan railway which aims to connect Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, as well as water management infrastructure.
In Central Asia, water is a highly limited resource. Controlling water means exerting strong diplomatic power over neighbours.
Afghanistan and Iran are clashing over the control over the Helmand River where the former has built a dam restricting water flow to the latter. The Taliban has a hardline approach to this decades-old dispute. In May 2023 at least one border guard on each side was killed in a brief military escalation.
The great powers’ games in Afghanistan
Despite the chaos that followed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the U.S. has tried to maintain a channel of communication with the Taliban. Since August 2021, Afghanistan received $2 billion in aid from Washington.
The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported that this aid has mainly come under the control of the Taliban rather than the Afghan people. One of the most common methods used by the Taliban has been the establishment of fake NGOs to receive and control parts of the aid.
The U.S. is also cooperating with the Taliban on security issues, providing satellite images and locations of the ISIS-K and other jihadist strongholds, although some officials denied cooperation.
The U.S. has so far adopted a non-hostile approach to the Taliban to counter Chinese and Russian influence in the region.
Both China and Russia historically played prominent roles in Afghanistan.
Russia sought new trade routes into Asia to mitigate the consequences of Western sanctions and found a potential partner in the Taliban with whom it signed an agreement to provide fuels, gas and wheat with a discount on global market prices.
Still, the war in Ukraine shifted Moscow's attention to the European theatre and opened up several opportunities for China in Central Asia.
The Taliban hoped for help from these two countries to break their international isolation and boost Afghanistan’s economy. China has slowly started to invest in the Afghan mining sector with a particular focus on lithium – a strategically important mineral used in battery production.
However, China's primary goal is to reduce security threats from terrorist groups with ties to Afghanistan such as the Islamic State (ISIS), the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP).
China sees a loyal Taliban leadership as the best way to preserve order and security along the 92-kilometre border it shares with Afghanistan and protect its citizens and investments in the country.
Russia is eager to cooperate with China on security issues in Afghanistan.
ISIS, the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) are among Russia's main worries in the region.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has stressed that terrorists in Afghanistan pose a severe threat to his own and all Central Asian countries, especially after the September 2022 attacks carried out by ISIS-K against the Russian embassy in Kabul that killed 6 people.
A deadly terror attack on a Moscow concert venue on March 22, 2024, killing over 130 people, was claimed by ISIS-K, the branch of Islamic State located in Afghanistan and waging war on the Taliban.
Future scenarios
We tentatively describe three broad scenarios for Afghanistan in the coming years – maintaining the status quo, a “positive” development and a “negative” development.
1. Significant improvement
In this scenario, the Taliban will succeed in stabilising the domestic economy by strengthening the rule of law, attracting foreign investments, increasing foreign aid and exploring domestic natural resources such as crude oil and mineral deposits. The Taliban will also begin a process of political openness, involving some minorities in the political sphere and improving people's basic rights. The U.S. and international organisations will support this course by easing sanctions and increasing humanitarian aid. The Taliban will also gain diplomatic recognition from the international community.
2. Significant degradation
In this scenario, the Taliban will lose its power due to the pressure of domestic terrorist groups, especially ISIS-K which intensified its activities after August 2021. Given its already precarious economic and political situation, the country could suddenly become a failed state at any moment. The foreign NGOs currently containing the humanitarian crisis in the country will no longer be able to operate. Regional actors and global powers would compete over political influence and no single political leadership would emerge in the country.
3. Status quo
In this scenario, the status quo is entrenched in the coming years. Economic growth will continue to be limited by sanctions and mismanagement while investment in the country remains sporadic and follows the strategic interests of partner countries. Political openness will not be prioritised by the Taliban while the international community attempts to pressure them into social reform with aid and economic sanctions. Global powers will continue to not recognise the Taliban as the legitimate authority in Afghanistan while a few Central Asian countries may do so in exchange for some political or economic benefits.
Author: Elia Preto Martini
Editor: Anton Kutuzov
Help us!
How useful/interesting was this report?
What did you feel was missing?