Erdogan’s Turkey, explained
May 18, 2025
Why is Turkey globally important?
Location
Turkey is situated in both Europe and Asia, while also being near Africa.
It controls the Bosporus Strait, which accounts for 6.6% of global trade by sea.
Turkey is close to active conflict zones, including Syria, Iraq and Ukraine.
Turkey connects Europe with oil and gas-rich countries like Azerbaijan, Iraq and Russia.
Military
Turkey has the second-largest NATO army (after the US), with about 355,000 soldiers.
50 American nuclear bombs are located at a US military base in Turkey.
Turkish company Baykar is a global leader in military drones. Its Bayraktar TB2 is the world’s most exported UAV.
Economy
Turkey is a G20 member, with a total GDP of $1.32 trillion in 2024 (16th largest economy).
Turkey has a strong industry in automotive, defence and electronics manufacturing, which contribute 22% of its GDP.
Erdogan’s rise to power
Recep Tayyip Erdogan started his political career in 1976 as an anti-communist.
For decades, Turkish society has been divided evenly in a conflict between:
Secularists, who don’t want religion to influence governance and fear the erosion of civil liberties.
Islamists, who hold religious and conservative values and often see secularism as elitist or repressive.
Turkish military historically intervened in government affairs to “defend” secularist values, removing Islamist leaders by force.
Erdogan joined the Islamist Welfare Party in 1983 and quickly became one of its stars.
In 1994, Erdogan became the Mayor of Istanbul (winning with 25% of the votes). He caused fear in liberal-minded citizens by saying:
“Democracy is like a train: when we reach our destination, we get off”.
- Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 1996
Erdogan’s administration governed pragmatically and managed to improve life in the city, solving environmental, infrastructure, financial and other issues.
In 1997, Erdogan was sentenced to 10 months in prison for a speech inciting religious hate.
In 2001, the Islamist political forces split.
Erdogan led the effort to modernise Turkish Islamists and model them after conservative democratic parties like the CDU in Germany.
In 2003, Erdogan became the Prime Minister (then highest political office in the country), with his new party winning 34% of the votes.
Erdogan pushed for Turkey to join the European Union, including by changing some laws. He was named “European of the Year” in 2004.
However, these negotiations failed in 2009, after Turkey refused to recognise Cyprus as a country.
In 2007, hundreds of thousands of Turks protested Erdogan’s candidacy for president, fearing he would change the political system in the country and damage its secular democracy.
This is exactly what happened in 10 years’ time.
In 2013, Erdogan’s closest aides were arrested over a $100 billion corruption case.
Coup attempt
Erdogan was elected President in 2014, while his party kept the Prime Minister’s seat.
In 2016, the Turkish military tried to overthrow Erdogan in a coup, seeing him as a threat to Turkey’s democracy and secularism.
The coup failed, as the Turkish army defeated the pro-coup forces.
Erdogan blamed the US for supporting the coup attempt, which severely damaged the countries’ relationship.
After the coup, a two-year state of emergency allowed Erdogan to rule by decree.
About 77,000 people have been arrested, and 150,000 civil servants have been sacked for supposed involvement.
In 2017, Erdogan promoted a referendum to change the constitution, giving the President much more power and making it the central office in the country.
The referendum motion passed with 51.4% of the votes. Turkey shifted from a parliamentary to a presidential system of governance.
International observers noted unfair conditions, such as limitations on civil organisations, restrictions on fundamental freedoms, and biased media coverage.
Freedom House rated Turkey as "not free" for the first time in 2018.
Foreign policy
Under Erdogan, Turkey transitioned from a pro-Western alignment to a multipolar foreign policy involving the US, China and Russia.
In 2018, the EU formally froze Turkey's accession talks over concerns about democracy and human rights.
In 2022, Sweden applied to join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine that year. Turkey opposed Sweden's NATO membership, claiming it was supporting PKK-linked individuals.
After long negotiations, Turkey approved Sweden joining NATO in 2024.
In exchange, Turkey got:
Renewed economic dialogue with the EU
Sweden introduced stricter anti-terror laws
US approved the sale of F-16V advanced fighter jets to Turkey
Relations with China
In 2015, Turkey joined the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s global infrastructure and investment project.
In 2023, China and Turkey's bilateral trade reached $43.4 billion, with Chinese investments in Turkey totalling $3 billion, primarily in the automotive, infrastructure, and energy sectors.
As Turkey's economic dependence on China grew, Erdogan stayed silent on Chinese authorities’ repression of Uyghurs, a Turkic Muslim minority living in China's Xinjiang region.
At the same time, Erdogan’s governments often acted to deny or downplay the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire.
In 2024, Turkey received BRICS partner status. Some reports suggest that it applied to become a full member, but this is currently opposed by India.
Relations with Russia
During the Syrian Civil War, Turkey and Russia stood on opposite sides.
Russia supported the Assad regime due to a longstanding diplomatic relationship.
Turkey supported Syrian rebel groups to counter the US-supported Kurdish militias.
Crisis point: In 2015, Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet near its border with Syria.
Russia responded with sanctions on tourism, food exports and construction firms, which cost Turkey about $10 billion.
Reconciliation: In 2016, Erdogan apologised for the jet incident, and Russia started lifting sanctions. Putin then expressed support for Erdogan after the attempted military coup.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey maintained a neutral stance, deciding not to participate in Western sanctions against Russia.
Since then, Turkey-Russia economic and energy ties have strengthened.
In 2023, Turkey imported 42% of its natural gas and 34% of its oil from Russia.
Turkey's exports to Russia rose from $5.7 billion in 2021 to $10.9 billion in 2023.
The TurkStream gas pipeline began its operations in 2020 as a strategic gas transit route that bypasses Ukraine.
Turkey hosted or mediated many of the major international negotiations on the invasion of Ukraine.
Kurdistan issue
Since 1984, Turkey has fought against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), an ethnic political and military group wanting autonomy for the historically marginalised Kurdish people.
It is recognised as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and the EU.
The PKK’s four-decade insurgency resulted in more than 40,000 people killed and strong social and economic tensions within Turkey.
In 2015, a two-year ceasefire between Turkey and the PKK ended, and armed clashes resumed.
Out of the 65 mayors elected from a pro-Kurdish party in 2019, 45 were removed from office due to supposed connections to the PKK.
In March 2025, the founding leader of the PKK, currently in prison in Turkey, called on the PKK to cease its armed struggle and dissolve itself.
He claimed PKK achieved its historical mission, and that the Kurdish struggle should now be pursued through a peaceful political process.
Two months later, the PKK voted to dissolve, ending its 40-year long-lasting conflict with Turkey.
Erdogan positioned himself as a key ally of Syria's new President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose rebel group he supported to topple the regime of Bashar Assad.
Turkey still opposes plans for a decentralised government in post-civil war Syria that would grant more autonomy to the Kurds.
Domestic
In 2018, Erdogan was reelected for the first time as President with 53% of the votes.
During his second term, repression of political opponents and the media continued.
In 2020, Turkey passed a counter-terrorism law, which the Turkish authorities use to arrest journalists and political activists.
In 2022, Turkey passed the Disinformation Law, which tightened control over social media and news sites.
Istanbul's Mayor and Erdogan’s main rival, Ekrem İmamoğlu, is currently jailed on corruption charges and has faced trials since 2022.
His arrest in 2025 triggered mass protests — the biggest in Turkey in over a decade.
Over the last decade, thousands of judges and prosecutors have been sacked and replaced with people loyal to Erdogan.
In 2023, an earthquake killed 55,000 people, exposing major government failures like delayed disaster response and corruption.
Ahead of the 2023 presidential elections, the government introduced minimum wage hikes, public subsidies, and social spending.
Critics said this was a move to increase Erdoğan's chances of winning the election.
Erdogan was reelected President in 2023 with 52% of the votes.
Economy
In 2022, 13% of Turkey's population, about 11 million people, were at risk of poverty, with disposable income below 60% of the national median.
Despite the currency crisis, Turkey's GDP growth averaged 4.6% between 2018 and 2023, similar to Erdogan’s first presidential term.
From 2014 to 2018, Turkey's GDP growth averaged 4.9%, influenced by:
Low interest rates in developed countries drove investors to pursue higher returns in emerging markets like Turkey.
Turkey experienced an extended period of stability and benefited from its mid-2000s pro-market reforms.
From 2014 to 2018, Turkey's Central Bank kept interest rates relatively low, encouraging credit growth and supporting consumption and investment.
2018: Turkey's economy entered a crisis, with the Turkish lira losing over 30% of its value against the dollar. Why?
Turkey's cheap credit and high public spending led to high inflation.
Erdogan pressured the Central Bank to keep interest rates low, further fuelling inflation.
Foreign investors lost confidence in Turkey and pulled out their money, causing the lira to lose value.
Turkish companies and banks faced higher repayment costs for their foreign currency debts as the lira depreciated.
The US raised tariffs on Turkey's aluminium and steel after the country detained an American pastor, allegedly involved in the 2016 coup.
The Turkish lira depreciated by approximately 450% against the US dollar between July 2018 and July 2023.
Annual inflation had increased to 53.9% in 2023, compared to 16.3% in 2018.
Between 2023 and 2025, Turkey's interest rates were increased, but inflation remained high — 37.9% as of April 2025.
Author Elia Preto Martini
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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