Iran Nuclear Deal
May 4, 2025
The 2015 deal limited Iran's nuclear program, for sanctions relief
In 2018, US has left the agreement under President Trump
Iran significantly advanced its uranium enrichment since 2022
In 2025, the US is negotiating a second nuclear deal with Iran
Iran nuclear deal (or JCPOA) was signed between Iran and major global powers in 2015.
Parties: China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, the UK, the US and the EU.
In 2018, US President Donald Trump exited the agreement, calling it ineffective and one-sided.
The deal: Iran promised to stop the military side of its nuclear energy program and to allow international organisations to oversee it.
In exchange, economic sanctions on Iran were reduced, especially allowing it to sell oil.
Historical context
In 1953, the US and the UK supported an authoritarian shah of Iran to overthrow a democratic government. The goal was to keep control over Iran’s oil reserves.
Iran started its nuclear program in the 1950s with the help of the US.
In 1979, the Islamic Revolution replaced the pro-American regime with the current Islamic Republic of Iran.
The new regime resumed nuclear efforts in cooperation with China, Russia and Pakistan, after a 9-year war with neighbouring Iraq ended in 1988.
In 1980 and 1981, Iran and Israel both carried out airstrikes on Iraq’s nuclear facilities, destroying them.
In 2002, a secret uranium enrichment (concentration) facility was found in Iran, believed to have military purposes.
In 2008, President Barack Obama was elected in the US. His administration pushed for a nuclear deal with Iran that was signed in 2015, during his second term.
Goals: (1) strengthen the US diplomatic role in the region, (2) prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, and (3) improve Middle Eastern security in cooperation with other global powers.
Since 2006, Iran has been under increasing international sanctions for refusing to stop uranium enrichment. Those especially targeted Iran’s oil and gas trade.
Sanctions had successfully damaged Iran's oil industry which accounted for about 80% of the country's total exports.
The sanctions relief from the JCPOA beginning in 2015 positively impacted Iran's economic growth and inflation.
GDP: In 2016 and 2017, Iran's GDP grew by 8.8% and 2.8% respectively, up from -1.5% in 2015. After the withdrawal, it dropped to -1.8% in 2018 and -3.1% in 2019.
Inflation: Iran's inflation fell from 16.6% in 2014 to 7.2% in 2016, but increased again to 18% in 2018 as the deal broke down and escalated further to 39.9% in 2019.
Oil trade: Iran's oil exports were falling sharply before the deal, from almost 2.2 million barrels per day in 2011 to under a million barrels in 2014.
Exports of oil from Iran rapidly recovered while the deal was active reaching 1.8 million barrels/day.
Reintroduction of sanctions in 2018 reversed this trend, oil exports dropped to a record low 440,000 barrels per day in 2020.
Since then, global economic recovery from the pandemic and closer ties with China again boosted Iran’s oil exports, which recovered to 1.4 million barrels/day by 2023.
In 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year economic agreement to boost trade and transport cooperation.
China and Iran have created a system for trading oil without using Western banks or shipping services, avoiding US sanctions.
This system relies on a "shadow fleet" of oil tankers that hides the oil’s destination.
China likely buys Iranian oil with the Chinese currency renminbi (yuan).
Since it is not freely traded, Iran can only use it to buy goods from China or to build up foreign exchange reserves.
The US sanctions succeeded in putting pressure on Iranian leadership but had the effect of pushing Iran into China's sphere of influence.
Why did US leave the nuclear deal?
In May 2018, President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the JCPOA and reimpose sanctions against Iran.
The Trump administration referred to some failures of the deal:
Time limit: In October 2025, the resolution endorsing the JCPOA would expire, and the Security Council would close Iran's nuclear file.
Proxy warfare: Iran was using money from sanctions relief to sponsor terror groups in the region, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Missile program: there were no agreed limits on Iran developing delivery methods for nuclear weapons, such as ballistic missiles.
Trump's Middle Eastern policy aimed to (1) exert maximum pressure on Iran through economic isolation and (2) improve Arab-Israeli relations.
In the following year, Israel signed deals with United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco as part of broader Arab-Israeli normalisation in 2017-2023.
The US withdrawal did not formally end the nuclear deal, and Iran could have continued to fulfil its commitments. The other signatories remained within the deal and criticised Trump's decision.
However, as tensions in the region increased, Iran resumed using nuclear development as a tool of political retaliation against Israel and the US.
After Iranian major general Qasem Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike in 2020, Iran resumed enriching uranium without limits. Iran also restricted IAEA inspections and withdrew many of the agency's inspectors.
After his election, President Biden attempted to negotiate a return to the JCPOA with new commitment from Iran, but no agreement was reached.
On January 5, 2020, Iran publicly declared it would no longer respect the deal’s limits.
Iran further sped up its nuclear program after the assassination of a nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh by Israeli special services in November 2020.
As of 2025, Iran can develop enough nuclear material for a nuclear weapon in a week if needed.
In 2015, this time was estimated at about 1 year.
Iran has been installing thousands of advanced centrifuges for enriching uranium, especially since 2022.
At its current capabilities, Iran can produce a simple nuclear weapon in under 6 months, if needed.
However, developing a small arsenal of nuclear ballistic missile warheads would require Iran up to a few years.
Future
The balance of power between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and their relationship with the US, are central to Middle Eastern geopolitics.
In 2023, China brokered a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia that was supposed to normalise their diplomatic relationship.
However, when Iran launched a mass drone-and-missile strike on Israel in April 2024, Saudi Arabia participated in intercepting them by sharing military intelligence with the US.
Israel is believed to have nuclear weapons since the 1960s, despite not confirming this officially — a strategy known as 'deliberate nuclear ambiguity'.
Iran states that their main goal in developing nuclear weapons is to counter Israel.
Israel has been actively countering Iranian nuclear program since 1979, including by sabotage, assassinations, and cyber warfare.
While Iran is now close to obtaining an atomic weapon, there is no clear sign that it would finalise the process and produce a nuclear device.
If Iran gets a nuclear weapons stockpile its national security and military capabilities will increase, but its leaders will lose a valuable bargaining chip for future sanctions relief.
A nuclear Iran will likely experience growing diplomatic isolation and the risk that other regional countries like Saudi Arabia will start developing nuclear weapons too.
In 2025, President Trump started negotiations with Iran to sign a new nuclear deal.
The first draft of the new deal is similar to the one signed in 2015. However, it includes:
Extending the deal by 25 years
Introducing tighter controls over the limits set
Israel has opposed the signing of a new deal, in favour of more economic pressure on Iran instead of sanctions relief. It has intensified airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets in Syria.
Author Elia Preto Martini
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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