European Defence, explained
June 15, 2025
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 broke the assumption of a long-lasting peace in Europe.
Military security became a political priority, as a large-scale war broke out on the continent.
Russian threat:
In 2014, Russia increased the fear of conflict by breaking international law and annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
Russian officials now say the country is at war with NATO and the collective West, as it increased its support for Ukraine after the invasion.
Russia has an active and battle-hardened force of 700,000 soldiers deployed in Ukraine.
Russia uses hybrid warfare, from a disinformation campaign in Romania to the sabotage of military factories in Germany, against Europe.
Defence spending is now a necessity even when other areas are seeing budget cuts.
EU defence budget increased from €190 billion in 2014 to €326 billion in 2024 (in real terms, meaning inflation accounted for).
EU member states are speeding up their rearmament programmes.
Public opinion is also catching up to the risks: 77% of Europeans support a common defence policy.
Despite its growing security ambitions, the European Union does not have a common army.
Defence and foreign policy issues are mostly under the control of the individual member states.
However, EU-wide decisions on foreign policy and security are made by the Council of the EU:
The Council requires agreement from all 27 countries on any issue for it to become a requirement.
In 2023 and 2024, the Hungarian government of Viktor Orban, an ally of Vladimir Putin, has blocked resolutions for aid to Ukraine multiple times.
Today, the EU’s has the CSDPframework that allows it to conduct civilian and military missions abroad, aimed at promoting peace, managing crises and supporting international security.
However, participation in these missions is voluntary. Member states decide, case by case, whether to contribute personnel, equipment, or funding.
No standing EU army
No unified chain of command
No obligation to act jointly
The CSDP reflects the EU’s goal of becoming a single geopolitical actor, but it also reveals its current limitations:
Strategic decisions require unanimous agreement
Operational planning is slow
Missions are limited in scope and duration
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The European Union is the world’s second-largest defence spender, behind the United States.
Projections suggest an additional increase of over €100 billion by 2027.
However, these numbers don’t tell the full story.
Unlike the US or China, European military power is split between 27 national armies, each shaped by its own doctrine, culture and economy.
Rather than moving toward shared standards and capabilities, EU member states often continue to buy mismatched equipment.
The result is a mix of weapons systems, communication platforms and protocols that complicate coordination.
For example, EU currently uses 14 different models of a main battle tank, while the US uses 1.
Fragmentation is a strategic vulnerability:
In a high-intensity conflict, even if politically united, Europe’s forces might be unable to fight effectively together, due to incompatible systems and the absence of a unified command structure.
EU military, in numbers
In 2024, the EU’s collective defence spending accounted for 1.9% of combined GDP.
Eastern European countries spend the largest budget share on their defence investments.
Being close to Russia and Belarus pushed these nations to upgrade their weapon systems and come up with new defence initiatives.
In 2024, Poland spent over 4.12% of its GDP to defence, the highest ratio in the EU and NATO.
Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania are also among the highest spenders (proportionally).
The European military industry is not as strong as those of the US, China or Russia.
Europe is dependent on US military exports.
Between 2020-2024, over 60% of arms imported by European members of NATO came from the US.
Europe struggles to mass-produce.
For example, fighter jet production is limited to 35–40 jets per year. To compare, the US produces around 246 fighter jets yearly.
In 2025, Russia is expected to roll out 1,500 main battle tanks (both newly built and repaired).
Europe has only one active production line for modern tanks: the German Leopard 2, and its output is around 50 tanks per year.
There is also a gap in artillery shell production.
Russia is expected to produce over 250,000 shells per month in 2025.
Europe is planning to reach 167,000 shells monthly by 2026, producing about 1 million in 2025.
However, this is a substantial increase from only around 20,000 shells monthly in February 2022.
In 2022, the EU started to address the limitations of its defence industry more actively, faced with more obvious risks.
The most significant proposal so far is the ReArm Europe initiative.
Launched in 2025, it is built on the idea that strategic autonomy requires strategic scale.
What is it about?
Mobilise up to €800 billion over 4 years to fund joint weapons purchases and improve Europe’s defence industry.
A €150 billion loan to support joint investments.
A legal change that allows member states to raise defence spending without breaching the EU fiscal rule.
The goal is to ensure European forces are not just well-equipped but capable of fighting together.
Poland
Poland has become a key player in European security.
As of 2025, its Armed Forces include 216,000 soldiers, ranking Poland as the largest military force in Europe and the third largest in NATO.
This is a significant rise from 113,000 active personnel in 2021.
In 2024, Poland’s defence spending reached €37 billion, amounting to 4.12% of its GDP.
The fear of a potential Russian aggression has led to popular support for the military buildup.
Recently, the Polish government announced a plan to introduce voluntary military training for every adult male.
The goal is to establish a substantial reserve force, with a target of training 100,000 volunteers by 2027.
Poland is building the East Shield, an $2.5 billion 800-kilometre-long fortification project on the borders with Russia and Belarus.
The country currently hosts around 10,000 US troops.
Germany
Germany’s defence strategy is transforming in response to the changing security context.
As of early 2025, the German army includes over 185,000 active-duty personnel, with plans to expand to 203,000 by 2031.
Germany's defence budget was almost €90 billion in 2024.
In 2025, Germany announced its first permanent foreign military deployment since World War II by setting up a brigade in Lithuania.
The brigade, with approximately 4,800 soldiers, will be ready by 2027.
Approximately 40,000 US troops are stationed in Germany, as well as 15 NATO nuclear bombs.
France
As the only EU member with both a nuclear arsenal and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, France plays a unique role in European defence.
Troops: 200,000 active soldiers.
France also has the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, estimated at 290 warheads.
France is the only EU state with nuclear capabilities.
Budget: €59.6 billion in 2024.
In the last decade, France has consistently backed the idea of European defence sovereignty: arguing that Europe must develop the ability to act without US support and approval.
United Kingdom
Although no longer part of the EU, the UK is still involved in European defence cooperation.
Troops: 108,000 active personnel.
Budget: to reach £56.9 billion (€67.8 billion) in 2025.
This increase is part of the commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, up from the current 2.3%.
The UK keeps Europe’s largest nuclear arsenal, with an estimated stockpile of 225 warheads.
Italy
Troops: 165,000 active personnel.
Budget: €30 billion in 2024, or 1.49% of its GDP, below the NATO target.
In early 2025, the Italian government formally pledged to meet the 2% GDP defence spending threshold by 2028.
Italy is the sixth-largest arms exporter in the world, accounting for 4.8% of global defence exports in 2020-2024.
It hosts around 13,000 US troops and an estimated 35 US nuclear bombs.
Italy is the only country in continental Europe to maintain 2 aircraft carriers, making it a key maritime force within Europe and NATO.
Role of PESCO
In 2017, to address fragmentation the EU launched PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation).
Goal: to promote greater defence integration among willing member states by
Encouraging collaboration on joint projects
Developing shared capabilities
Promoting interoperability of equipment
Ensuring cost-efficient cooperation
During Joe Biden’s administration, the US issued some warning over increased European military cooperation through PESCO, worrying that it would reduce the relevance of NATO.
Donald Trump’s administration instead pushed for increased European independence from the US in defending security on the continent.
Author Simone Chiusa
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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